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Bigging-up Renewables62% of global electricity from renewables by 2030
The UK Energy Research Centre’s new study of the UK energy mix up to 2050, presents a range of possible energy scenarios with different mixes of technology, including versions with a lot of wind, some with a lot of Coal/Carbon Capture and Storage, and some with no nuclear - although most include it, in some cases, a lot. But the point is, as UKERC say, ‘There are multiple potential pathways to a low-carbon economy’. It added that ‘a key trade-off across the energy system is the speed of reduction in energy demand versus decarbonisation of energy supply’.
Clearly investment in energy efficiency and demand side management is going to be of central importance, but we will still need new low or zero carbon energy supplies. Accelerating renewables to avoid reliance on nuclear is a possibility, but it is seen by UKERC as quite a stretch and a viable mix would also require a contributions from fossil Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The dominant view remains that we will also need nuclear.
However, there are other views, some of which see renewables being able to expand very rapidly, and on a global basis. A new study by the Energy Watch Group in Germany claims that there is no need to construct new nuclear-power facilities to meet demand. It looks at two scenarios- ‘high-variant’ and ‘low-variant’. By 2030, renewables could they say contribute about 62% to final electricity globally and about 16% to final heat in the ‘High Variant’, and 35% of final electricity and 10% of final heat in the Low Variant, with the overall share (heat and power) being 29% in the “High Variant” and 17% in the low Variant.
The study looks into the decrease in technology costs resulting from increased production volume, as well as the assumed individual development of the various world regions. It suggest that in the OECD region, on the High Variant, 54% of the electricity demand and 13% of the heat demand could be met from renewable sources by 2030, with the total final energy share (heat and power) being 27% (low variant: almost 17%). In the non-OECD region, renewables could supply almost 68% of electricity, and about 17% of final heat demand (low variant: 36% of electricity and 11% of heat), while the overall share of renewables rises to 30% in the high variant (low variant 18%).
Given that the present renewable energy generation capacity globally is just over 1000GW, including hydro, that is quite a stretch, but annual growth rates for wind and PV solar are around 30% and new technologies for electricity and heat production are emerging rapidly, including marine renewables like wave and tidal power, and Concentrating Solar Power.
Some of these new renewable options will take time to mature, but some are ready now for deployment- and can be installed quicky. We are talking months for wind farms, weeks for PV solar roof top devices and of course days for simple energy efficiency measures- compared to years for major nuclear plants. Of course, if the funding is available, it is also possible to install a large amount of nuclear capacity. However, one strategic issue is whether it makes sense to divert funding away from the wide variety of different types of renewables, to focus mainly on nuclear, or whether a more diverse programme would be better in terms of cost-effective carbon saving in both the short and long terms.
The study “Renewable Energy Outlook 2030” is at: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Renewables.52+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
The UKERC report is at: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/ResearchProgrammes/UKERC2050/UKERC 2050homepage.aspx
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